European currencies continue to drift lower against the US dollar as geopolitical tensions intensify and demand for safe-haven, liquid assets grows. Investors are scaling back exposure to riskier assets, weighing on both the euro and the pound. The dollar is also supported by expectations of upcoming US macro data, which could подтвердить economic resilience and sustain the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance.
Tensions in the Middle East remain a key market driver. Escalating conflict, risks to energy supply, and rising oil prices are fuelling inflation expectations and boosting demand for the dollar. In this environment, European currencies stay under pressure as investors favour safer instruments.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD remains on a downward path, approaching its yearly lows after the latest bearish move. Buyers failed to hold above 1.1640 last week, allowing sellers to regain control and push the pair towards 1.1440. With yearly lows nearby, weaker eurozone data or stronger US figures could accelerate losses and trigger a break below 1.1400.
If 1.1440 holds as support, a corrective rebound towards 1.1520–1.1540 remains possible.
Key events for EUR/USD:
- today at 09:00 (GMT+2): German retail sales
- today at 10:55 (GMT+2): change in German unemployment
- today at 17:00 (GMT+2): US CB consumer confidence
GBP/USD
GBP/USD is showing clearer weakness, already marking new yearly lows amid strong selling pressure. The pound is pressured by both external factors, including dollar strength, and domestic uncertainty around the Bank of England’s policy outlook.
A corrective move towards 1.3250–1.3280 is possible, though any rebound is likely to be limited before a potential continuation of the downtrend.
Key events for GBP/USD:
- today at 09:00 (GMT+2): UK GDP
- today at 09:00 (GMT+2): UK current account
- today at 14:30 (GMT+2): US JOLTS job openings
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